I keep track of things Daniel Swain writes about weather, his latest discussion of California weather included a tidbit about a potential “super El Nino” in the next couple of years. I don’t make predictions about the weather, but this could have a positive impact on refilling the source of Sheep Creek’s water supply for a few years.
Current SST anomaly map from NOAA. It depicts a remarkably warm global ocean, punctuated by extremely warm temperatures near the tropical west coast of South America and unusually cool water near California and the west coast of North America.
At this moment in time, no person alive has ever experienced global ocean temperatures as warm as they are today (i.e., the global average SST anomaly has reached record levels in recent days). This is despite remarkably cool patches of water in two regions: the sub-Antarctic eastern Pacific west of South America, and the mid-latitude East Pacific along the coast of western North America (including along the California coast). Nearly everywhere else on Earth, the oceans are presently much warmer than the long-term average–and this is especially true near the west coast of tropical South America near Peru, where SST anomalies are locally in excess of 5C (9F). That is an extraordinary level of oceanic warmth, and is highly suggestive of the early stages of a significant El Niño event.
And indeed: all other indicators also point to a rapidly-developing El Niño in the tropical Pacific. Westerly wind bursts are underway; subsurface warm water is sloshing eastward; and both dynamical models and statistical predictions suggest a very high likelihood of transitioning into El Niño conditions by this summer or autumn at the latest. In fact, dynamical model predictions continue to become more and more aggressive regarding the potential magnitude of the coming El Niño event–with some indicating at least some possibility of a “super El Niño” by next autumn (i.e., one comparable to or greater than the top-tier events that occurred in 82-83, 97-98, and 15-16).
Despite much hype at the moment, it’s important to remember that we do remain on the “wrong side” of the “Spring Predictability Barrier” (during which models sometimes struggle to produce reasonable predictions of what might happen in the coming months). I normally wouldn’t put too much stock into explicit ENSO intensity predictions at this early juncture. However, in this case, there are plenty of ocean-atmospheric dynamical theories that would suggest that the path toward a significant El Niño event is indeed plausible this year–especially all the energy stored in the tropical Pacific Ocean during the remarkable “Triple Dip” (three year long) La Niña event that just ended. So for now, it remains a waiting game…but I do think it’s increasingly likely this will be a major player in California weather starting later this summer and into next autumn/winter. Stay tuned.
